Số liệu kinh tế và phản ứng thị trường
Các số liệu làm thị trường forex dịch chuyển, và vì sao độ bất ngờ quan trọng hơn con số.
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Bài học
- 01The economic releases that move forex.The economic releases that move forex most are jobs reports, inflation (CPI), GDP, retail sales and PMI surveys. They matter because they change what traders expect central banks to do with interest rates. A release mostly moves its own country's currency, and US data reaches furthest because the dollar is on one side of most trades.
- 02Expectations versus actual: why surprises move markets.Prices move on the gap between what the market expected and what was published. Before a release, the consensus forecast is largely reflected in the exchange rate. When the actual figure differs, that difference, called the surprise, drives the move. A strong number can still push a currency down if traders expected more.
- 03How to read an economic calendar.An economic calendar lists scheduled data releases with their time, currency and importance rating. Compare the actual figure with the forecast, since prices tend to react to the surprise, and check whether the previous figure was revised. Confirm the calendar's time zone too, because daylight saving can move a US release by an hour on your clock.