Sentimen pasar
Suasana risk-on dan risk-off, data posisi, dan cara membaca kerumunan.
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- 01Risk-on and risk-off.Risk-on is a market mood where investors buy shares, commodities and higher-yielding currencies such as the Australian dollar. Risk-off is the opposite: fear rises and money moves toward safe havens, mainly the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc and often the US dollar. The pattern is a tendency, and interest rates or local news can break it.
- 02The Commitments of Traders report.The Commitments of Traders (COT) report is a weekly breakdown, published by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, of who holds long and short positions in US futures markets, including currency futures. It shows positions as of Tuesday and usually comes out on Friday, so it is three days old on arrival and leaves out over-the-counter forex.
- 03Retail positioning as a contrarian signal.Retail positioning data shows what share of one broker's clients are long or short a pair. Contrarian traders read it in reverse: a crowd heavily long hints the price may fall, since retail traders tend to buy into declines. It is a weak, one-broker signal that can stay extreme for weeks, so it needs a chart and testing.