Fundamental makro
Mengapa suku bunga, pertumbuhan, dan inflasi menggerakkan mata uang selama berbulan-bulan hingga bertahun-tahun.
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- 01What moves exchange rates?Exchange rates move when demand for one currency changes against another. In normal markets, the driver that moves prices most often is the expected gap in interest rates between two countries. Growth and inflation matter mainly through what they imply for rates. Risk appetite can take over in a crisis, and trade balances work slowly, over years.
- 02Interest rates and currencies.A currency tends to rise when its interest rates are expected to go up, because higher rates draw in money looking for a better return. Prices move on expectations, so a hike the market already expected may change little. Inflation and fear can also break the link.
- 03How central banks move currencies.Central banks move currencies mainly through interest rates. A higher policy rate, or a signal that one is coming, tends to attract money and lift a currency, and a lower one tends to weigh on it. Prices react most to the gap between what the bank does and what markets expected, and guidance and bond buying also move them.
- 04Inflation and currencies.Inflation moves a currency mainly through interest rate expectations. When an inflation report comes in above forecast, traders expect the central bank to raise rates or keep them higher, so the currency often rises. A figure below forecast often weakens it. Over many years, high inflation that is not controlled tends to erode a currency's value.