การวิเคราะห์ออนเชน
การอ่านข้อมูลบล็อกเชน วอลุ่ม กระแสเงินเข้าออกกระดานเทรด ต้นทุนเฉลี่ย SOPR, NUPL และ MVRV
เริ่มบทนี้8 บทเรียน
บทเรียน
- 01What is on-chain analysis?ENOn-chain analysis is the study of a blockchain's public records, such as transfers, balances and the age of coins, to see how holders behave. Data providers turn raw transactions into metrics like exchange flows and realized price. It adds context about supply and holder profit, but it cannot tell you when to trade.
- 02Spot volume and volume delta.ENSpot volume is the amount of a coin traded for immediate delivery over a period. Volume delta splits that volume by who started each trade: volume from market buy orders minus volume from market sell orders. A positive delta means buyers were the more aggressive side, which is different from saying there were more buyers.
- 03Exchange flows and exchange balances.ENExchange flows track coins moving onto and off known exchange addresses. Inflows arrive, outflows leave, and netflow is inflow minus outflow. Exchange balance is the total held at those addresses, often shown as a share of supply. Rising balances can mean coins ready to sell, but every figure depends on how well a provider labels exchange wallets.
- 04What is on-chain cost basis?ENOn-chain cost basis estimates what holders paid by valuing each coin at the price on the day it last moved on the blockchain. Add those values up and divide by the supply, and you get the realized price, the average cost of the whole market. Split by coin age, it gives a separate cost for short-term and long-term holders.
- 05What is SOPR?ENSOPR, the spent output profit ratio, compares what coins were worth when spent on-chain with what they were worth when last received. Above 1 means the coins that moved were spent at a profit on average; below 1 means at a loss. Traders watch how SOPR behaves around 1 to see whether holders are taking profits or giving up.
- 06What is NUPL?ENNUPL, net unrealized profit and loss, measures how much paper profit or loss all holders of a coin are sitting on, as a share of market cap. It equals market cap minus realized cap, divided by market cap. A positive reading means holders are in profit overall; a negative one means the market trades below its on-chain cost basis.
- 07What is MVRV, and how do traders read it?ENMVRV, market value to realized value, divides a coin's market cap by its realized cap, which values each coin at the price when it last moved. A reading of 1.25 means holders are up 25% on average, and below 1 means they are at a loss. Traders use MVRV and its holder-age versions to judge how stretched valuations are.
- 08What is the MVRV Z-score?ENThe MVRV Z-score measures how far a coin's market cap sits above or below its realized cap, in units of the standard deviation of market cap over its history. The formula is market cap minus realized cap, divided by that standard deviation. High readings mean an unusually stretched market; readings below 0 mean price is under the average on-chain cost.